Libya: Libya's Arsenals Are a Blind Spot in the Tripoli Agreement

What the report says

An Institute for Security Studies analysis published via AllAfrica says a recent political agreement in Tripoli could help move Libya toward elections and eventual reunification, but it identifies a major unresolved risk: the country’s militia arsenals. The deal, signed on 30 August between eastern and western Libyan factions, has been welcomed by the African Union and the UN Security Council, though one of the main western bodies, the High Council of State, has rejected it.

The analysis argues that disbanding militias and folding fighters into a unified army will require collecting and controlling weapons held by armed groups. Without that step, Libya’s stockpiles could be diverted into regional trafficking networks. The piece highlights concern for Niger, Chad and the wider Sahel, where southern Libya has long served as a supply base for rebel groups, armed movements and other non-state actors. It also notes that one route through south-eastern Libya is already used to move equipment toward Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces.

The report warns that a large release of weapons could worsen insecurity across the Sahel, Lake Chad Basin and coastal West Africa, echoing the broader regional impact seen after Libya’s 2011 collapse. It says the UN Support Mission in Libya should add a disarmament mandate, while Libya’s neighbours and regional organisations strengthen border control, intelligence sharing and anti-smuggling efforts. The article frames arms management as a test of whether the Tripoli deal can produce stability without creating a new surge in cross-border trafficking.